Mortality Risk for Acute Cholangitis (MAC): A risk prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with acute cholangitis

Background: Acute cholangitis is a life-threatening bacterial infection of the biliary tract. Aim: Main focus of the study was to create a useful risk prediction model that helps physicians to assign patients with acute cholangitis into different management groups. Methods: Retrospective data analysis of patients with acute cholangitis treated at a German tertiary center. Results: 981 cholangitis episodes from 810 patients were analysed. Out of eleven investigated statistical models fit to 22 predictors, the Random Forest model achieved the best (cross-)validated performance to predict mortality. The receiver op…